Will Donald Trump be elected president of the US in the 2048 election?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market's 2% odds reflect Trump's age (102 in 2048) and the absence of any precedent for electing a candidate over 80, not the recent headlines about visa denials or mail-voting rulings, which are irrelevant to a race 22 years away.
📊 Base rate: No US presidential candidate aged 80 or older has ever been elected; the oldest elected was Joe Biden at 78, making a 102-year-old candidate historically unprecedented.
What's driving it
- • The odds are overwhelmingly driven by Trump's age—he would be 102 in 2048—making his candidacy and survival highly improbable, regardless of current events.
- • Recent headlines about Brazil denying visas to Trump officials and a court blocking his mail-voting plan (Reuters, Jul 25; Bloomberg, Jul 25) pertain to the 2026 midterms, not the 2048 election, and have no direct impact on this market.
- • No clear catalyst from the provided headlines moves the 2% probability; the market is anchored by the long time horizon and mortality risk.
The case for YES
- • If Trump remains politically active and healthy into his 90s, he could theoretically run again, though no candidate has ever won at such an age.
- • The headlines show Trump still wields influence over election narratives and party machinery, which could sustain a future campaign infrastructure.
- • A dramatic shift in public acceptance of very elderly candidates, or a change in constitutional age requirements, could make a 2048 run plausible.
The case for NO
- • Trump would be 102 in 2048, far exceeding the life expectancy of US males (about 75), making survival to that election unlikely.
- • No US president has been elected past age 78, and the physical and cognitive demands of the office make a centenarian candidacy implausible.
- • The recent headlines (e.g., visa denials, court losses) highlight ongoing legal and political challenges that could further diminish Trump's long-term viability.
What to watch
- • A major health update on Trump (e.g., hospitalization or public decline) would push odds toward 0%.
- • Any announcement of Trump endorsing a successor or retiring from politics would further reduce the already minimal probability.
- • A change in the 22nd Amendment (unlikely) or a Supreme Court ruling on age limits could theoretically increase odds, but no such event is scheduled.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗