Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
417 markets · page 5 of 18
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Buttigieg's 23% Yes odds reflect a mix of early positioning and structural hurdles: he is actively testing a 2028 run in Iowa, but the No side is anchored by the long historical odds against any single candidate winning the presidency and the crowded Democratic field that will emerge.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Despite a wave of deadly attacks and the killing of his defense minister, Goïta has further entrenched his rule by assuming that portfolio, purging senior officers, and granting himself an unlimited mandate, making a departure by year-end highly unlikely.
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Goïta has consolidated control by purging rivals and assuming the defense ministry after an attack killed his predecessor, but the same attacks and a deepening security crisis show his hold is brittle despite granting himself an unlimited mandate.
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The market sees a low chance (16%) that the 2029 president will be a political novice, reflecting the dominance of experienced politicians like Trump in the 2028 race, but the odds are in line with the historical base rate of outsiders winning the presidency.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Despite a recent corruption probe and an Economist profile calling his leadership erratic, Prabowo's odds of leaving office early remain low (No 73%) as he delivers on popular policies like the B50 biodiesel mandate that ends diesel imports, and his government actively rallies public support.
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The market heavily doubts any U.S. president will create a prediction market on Manifold by 2050, reflecting a deep-seated belief that the political and legal risks of such an unconventional act far outweigh any potential benefit, despite recent debates over presidential power.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
The market heavily discounts Nguesso's removal within 2026 because he just won a fifth term with 95% of the vote in March, confirming his tight grip on power; the only recent development is an IMF loan request, which could signal economic pressure but not yet a credible threat to his presidency.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
David Sacks is a prominent tech venture capitalist and former Trump administration official, but his path to the presidency is nearly nonexistent given he has never held elected office, lacks a national political base, and faces immense structural barriers; the 96% No odds reflect that he is not a serious candidate, not that he is actively opposed.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The market's 2% odds reflect Trump's age (102 in 2048) and the absence of any precedent for electing a candidate over 80, not the recent headlines about visa denials or mail-voting rulings, which are irrelevant to a race 22 years away.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Taylor Swift's presidential odds remain at 4% because, despite her massive cultural influence and recent political endorsements, she has never held elected office, faces a deeply polarized political environment, and would need to overcome constitutional eligibility and party-nomination hurdles that no celebrity without political experience has ever cleared.
Yes ≈ 4% chance