Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 4hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets give roughly a 5% chance that Javier Milei will leave office as President of Argentina before 2027, with a small difference between a real-money site and a play-money one (likely due to differing audience incentives).
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗