Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,120 markets · page 4 of 255
Yes ≈ 81% chance
2 outcomes
The Texas Senate race is unexpectedly competitive, with a tied poll and aggressive Democratic outreach to Hispanic and Black voters challenging the state's deep-red reputation, but the GOP still holds a structural advantage in a midterm environment.
Yes ≈ 41% chance
22 outcomes
Yes ≈ 65% chance
20 outcomes
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
2 outcomes
2 outcomes
The 15% Yes odds reflect a deeply unfavorable environment for Republicans, with party infighting and a likely D+11 national environment that historically would cost them the majority, though redistricting lawsuits and legislative leverage points keep a narrow path alive.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Despite a diplomatic roadmap agreed in June, ongoing U.S. military strikes on Iran (AP News, Jul 22) and the absence of any announced follow-up talks make a formal senior-level meeting by July 31 highly unlikely, keeping odds at 8%.
Yes ≈ 7% chance