Trump Cabinet - Next To Leave — Next Cabinet Official To Leave In 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Lori Chavez-DeRemer at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The market's field is artificially distorted by two resolved contracts (Chavez-DeRemer, Gabbard) at 100%, making the top three sum 231%; the real contest among remaining officials is thin, with RFK Jr. at 31% as the only active double-digit contender despite no recent news of his imminent departure.
📊 Base rate: Under Trump's first term, the average annual cabinet turnover rate was roughly 50%, but specific individuals rarely exceed 30% probability of being the 'next to leave' without a direct catalyst.
What's driving it
- • Lori Chavez-DeRemer's abrupt resignation on April 20 after abuse allegations (AP News, Apr 20) reset the clock on who might be next. Tulsi Gabbard's May 22 resignation citing her husband's cancer (NPR, May 22) showed personal reasons can trigger exits. A June 30 HuffPost report of a cabinet official's undiplomatic Iran comment (HuffPost, Jun 30) suggests indiscretion could force someone out soon.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads the active field at 31% because he is a polarizing figure with known vaccine-skeptic views, making him susceptible to policy conflicts or media firestorms. Kelly Loeffler (10%) has ties to the Trump base but no clear recent catalyst; her odds likely reflect a generic 'any loyalist could be sacrificed' assumption. Pete Hegseth (8%) and Chris Wright (8%) have low but notable odds due to their less prominent roles, where sudden resignations are less disruptive.
Why it's still open
- • The field is wide open: 22 candidates exist, and the top active contender (RFK Jr.) sits at only 31%, meaning two-thirds of the probability mass is scattered across lower-ranked officials. A surprise resignation or firing, such as over a policy dispute or personal scandal, could catapult a 1-2% candidate like Jamieson Greer or Susie Wiles to the front. No major headlines currently target a specific cabinet member besides the undiplomatic remark (HuffPost, Jun 30), which could implicate multiple people.
What to watch
- • No dated upcoming events are provided in the headlines, but the summer political season often brings oversight hearings or foreign-policy incidents that could trigger a departure; a formal investigation into the undiplomatic comment (HuffPost, Jun 30) would raise odds for the unnamed official. The approach of the 2026 midterm elections (Nov 3, 2026) may prompt the White House to request resignations from underperforming cabinet members to shore up the administration's image.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Smarkets’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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