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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 2 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3829 US elections 2702 Foreign politics 410 Political Leader Tenure 340 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

251 markets · page 2 of 11

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$426 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1234…11Next ›

Open

Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$6K Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$465 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Current odds of 32% reflect a low expectation that a former US president will publicly accuse Trump of interfering in the 2026 midterms, as no such accusation has occurred despite recent foreign and state-level allegations. The lack of direct evidence or a credible named accuser keeps the probability far below even.

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$14.7K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2027

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$841 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mr. Beast run for President of the United States before EOY 2040?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Kalshi

Open

Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$311 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$60.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a woman walk on Mars before a woman is president of the United States?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$660 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

The market assigns a 69% probability to a woman being elected US president by 2040, reflecting a belief that demographic and political trends will eventually break the historical pattern of all-male presidents, but conflicting signals from figures like Pelosi and the lack of a clear frontrunner keep the odds from being higher.

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ11.4K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? — Before Apr 1, 2027

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$960 Vol▲ 0pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

The President of the United States in February 2029 will be someone who never had held elected political office prior to 2023.

The market sees a low chance (16%) that the 2029 president will be a political novice, reflecting the dominance of experienced politicians like Trump in the 2028 race, but the odds are in line with the historical base rate of outsiders winning the presidency.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ263 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any past or current president of the United States create a market on Manifold by end of 2050?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

$19 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be the first millennial president of the United States ?

JD Vance's path to the presidency depends on whether he can inherit Trump's MAGA base while overcoming his low national profile and the historical difficulty for vice presidents to win the top job, especially after a single term.

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ609 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2027

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

$704 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

J.D. Vance becomes next US president?

Despite sitting Vice President J.D. Vance's 23% odds, recent headlines focus less on his path to the presidency and more on speculation about a ‘fall guy’ role in the Iran deal and a potential 2028 Republican shake-up, suggesting the market is pricing in both Trump-era dynamics and Vance's still-uncertain national brand.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Jon Ossoff announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? — Before Apr 1, 2027

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$29 Vol▲ 0pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an openly gay man become president of the United States before a woman becomes president?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ3.8K Vol▲ 0pts16y

Kalshi

Open

Will Jon Ossoff announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$4 Vol▲ 0pts5mo