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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3923 US elections 2810 Foreign politics 440 Political Leader Tenure 357 Future US Presidents 228 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

11,066 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 11 of 417

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

‹ Prev1…910111213…417Next ›

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

The field is extremely fragmented and low-probability, with no candidate above 5%, reflecting a race that has not yet crystallized around any front-runner; the biggest recent shift is the absence of any movement despite a flurry of headlines about Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's high-profile diplomatic engagements with India, suggesting the market sees these events as irrelevant to his re-election chances.

Jimmie Åkesson3¢

2 outcomes

$3.3M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Futuur

Open

Winner of Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary

The field is highly concentrated, with Penny Flanagan at 79% and Angie Craig at 19%, leaving only 2% for others, and the biggest recent shift is Flanagan's surge following the ICE backlash that has energized the progressive base, as reported in The Washington Post on June 8.

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$27 Vol▲ 0pts15d

Kalshi

Open

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

The field is a binary contest between Republicans and Democrats, but the biggest recent shift is the Maine Democratic nomination turmoil, where the party replaced a scandal-plagued candidate with a former Republican logger, potentially shoring up a must-win seat (Washington Post, Jul 25).

Republican Party56¢

2 outcomes

$6.1M Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Smarkets

Open

State Senate Elections — Maine Senate Election Winner

The field is a two-way race between Democrat Troy Jackson and the Republican nominee, but the sudden replacement of the original Democratic candidate after an 'implosion' (Fox News, Jul 25) injects uncertainty despite the Democrat's current lead.

Democrat67¢

2 outcomes

£115 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

$256K Vol▲ 17pts20d

InsightX

Open

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

The market heavily discounts a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, but recent reports of Pentagon planning and political labeling of Cuba as a 'major subversive threat' show a significant escalation in rhetoric and preparation, making the low odds a stark contrast to the discourse.

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$3.2M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?

Labour43¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Elected Governor of Alagoas in 2026

The field is extremely concentrated between two heavyweights — JHC and Renan Filho — with a combined 105% probability, leaving almost no room for others; the biggest recent shift is the emergence of an anti-system former Supreme Court justice (Valor International, May 19), which could fragment the protest vote but has not yet dented the top two.

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$21 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

The market sees near-zero chance of a crypto market structure bill becoming law by September 1, 2026, despite recent bipartisan talks and White House agreement on ethics provisions, because the CLARITY Act's passage odds have hit a historic low and a Senate ethics dispute threatens progress.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$411K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Smarkets

Open

Trump Administration Exit Dates — Lori Chavez-DeRemer Exit Date - 2026

The market expects Chavez-DeRemer to depart by year-end 2026 largely because she has already resigned amid scandal, but the high Yes price (81%) reflects the unusual scenario that her resignation is effective immediately and yet a permanent replacement nomination was made only months later, creating ambiguity about her actual exit date.

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

£111 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Bitcoin hits $1m

The market is perfectly split because Bitcoin's path to $1M requires an unprecedented ~15x rally from its current $65K level before GTA VI's release, yet the lack of a concrete GTA VI release date means the clock could run out or extend indefinitely, creating a symmetric bet on two extreme unknowns.

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

$4.7M Vol5d

InsightX

Open

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome (December 31 at 25%), with all other candidates below 5%, indicating traders see a possible but not probable clash by year-end, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of December 31 as the leader following Russia's largest ballistic missile wave since 2022 (Crypto Briefing, Jul 19).

December 3130¢

2 outcomes

$3.2M Vol▲ 6pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ52.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Guam Governor winner?

Josh Tenorio37¢

5 outcomes

$63.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Futuur

Open

Winner of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary

El-Sayed is the clear frontrunner at 79% after securing a key endorsement from Smith, but Governor Whitmer's endorsement of a rival and reported internal party divisions keep the race competitive and the upset possibility alive.

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$19 Vol▲ 0pts8d

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Fed Decision in September?

The field is extremely concentrated, with a 97% probability assigned to either no change or a 25 bps increase, but the recent 1-point shift toward 'no change' masks a growing hawkish undercurrent: rate-hike voices are swelling before the July 29 decision (Reuters, Jul 17), yet the market still prices a 55% chance of no move in September, suggesting traders see the July meeting as a potential pivot point that could reset expectations.

25 bps increase54¢

5 outcomes

$4.4M Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Smarkets

Open

Governor Elections — Georgia Governor Election Winner

The field is a pure two-way race between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with no third-party or independent candidate above 2% — the single biggest recent shift was the Republican primary runoff on June 16-17, where Trump-endorsed candidate lost to state senator Jackson, fracturing the GOP base and tightening the general election odds (NYT, Jul 6).

Democrat57¢

2 outcomes

£107 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

InsightX

Open

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Despite rising tensions and frequent military drills, the low odds (7%) reflect market confidence that both sides will avoid direct military confrontation before 2027, as escalation remains contained to peripheral incidents and rhetoric.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$3.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Brazil Presidential Election Winner

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva70¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ15.3K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? — Above 50

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$45.8K Vol▼ 19pts2d

Futuur

Open

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

The field is moderately concentrated, with the 4–6 range holding a 35% plurality, but the 20% share for both the 3-or-less and 7–9 ranges shows significant uncertainty about the pace of departures; the biggest recent shift is the rise of the 4–6 bucket, likely driven by a series of ethics and financial-tie scandals (ProPublica, Mar 5) that increase pressure on officials to resign or be fired.

4 to 635¢

5 outcomes

$13 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Andy Burnham Exit Date - Year — Andy Burnham Exit Date - 2027

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

£106 Vol▲ 2pts3y

InsightX

Open

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

The field is extremely concentrated on Qatar at 14%, but the near-total absence of any other candidate above 5% and the recent denial of a second round of talks (News On AIR, Jul 25) suggest the market is pricing a very low probability of any near-term negotiation venue, making the odds more a reflection of default expectation than active momentum.

Qatar14¢

2 outcomes

$3.1M Vol▲ 0pts2mo