Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
🗂 Part of event: Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market sees virtually no chance the Fed will raise the federal funds rate above 4% at the Jul 29 meeting, despite earlier rate-hike signals and a new hawkish chair; the real story is that easing expectations have evaporated but a hike is still seen as extremely unlikely.
What's driving it
- • The market's near-certainty (99% No) reflects consistent messaging that the Fed is not imminently tightening, as a July 24 headline questions whether the easing bias is off the table (Kavout, Jul 24).
- • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appointment in May initially stoked rate-hike fears, but the bond market's subsequent yield increase (MarketWatch, May 15) has not translated into expectations of a near-term rate hike.
- • The Bank of Korea's surprise rate hike to 2.75% (Chosun Ilbo, Jul 17) demonstrates global tightening, but US markets dismiss a similar move given domestic economic conditions.
The case for YES
- • Persistent inflation concerns, as flagged by the Fed's June signal of potential hikes (Chosun Ilbo, Jun 19), could force a larger-than-expected hike (e.g., 50 bp) that pushes the upper bound above 4.00%.
- • New Chair Kevin Warsh is perceived as hawkish and may break with the dovish consensus, especially after the bond market effectively hiked rates (MarketWatch, May 15).
- • A surprise 50 bp hike or more would resolve Yes, and the extremely low 1% probability leaves room for a black-swan event if upcoming data is unexpectedly hot.
The case for NO
- • The overwhelming consensus (99% No) reflects that the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with the only question being whether the easing bias is off the table (Kavout, Jul 24).
- • Even a 25 bp hike to 4.00% would not resolve Yes because the upper bound must be strictly greater than 4.00%, so a modest hike fails the condition.
- • New Chair Warsh has not signaled any intention to raise rates at the July meeting, and the bond market's earlier hike (MarketWatch, May 15) has already been absorbed without Fed action.
What to watch
- • July 29, 2026 FOMC decision: any unexpected rate move above 4.00% would spike Yes; a hold or cut confirms No.
- • July 26-28 economic data releases (e.g., CPI, PCE) before the meeting: a higher-than-expected inflation print would increase Yes probability, while low inflation would solidify No.
- • Fed Chair Warsh's pre-meeting comments (if any) could shift expectations; hawkish rhetoric would boost Yes, dovish rhetoric would crush it.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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