Fed decision in Jul 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Fed decision in Jul 2026? →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Fed maintains rate at about a 66% chance — likely.
The field is heavily concentrated on a hold (79%), but the 21% probability of a 25bps hike is significant and has been rising since a July 8 NYT report that some officials favored higher rates at Chair Warsh's first meeting.
What's driving it
- • A July 8 New York Times report that several officials signaled support for higher rates at Warsh’s first meeting increased the perceived likelihood of a hike (NYT, Jul 8).
- • Bloomberg on July 11 highlighted that inflation data and Warsh’s stance are key to the decision, reinforcing the base case for a hold (Bloomberg, Jul 11).
- • The Fed’s launch of task forces on data, jobs, and inflation on July 9 suggests a data-dependent approach, which could delay any rate change (HousingWire, Jul 9).
Why the front-runners lead
- • Hold is the consensus outcome because inflation has moderated and the new chair is expected to maintain continuity (Bloomberg, Jul 11).
- • The 21% hike odds reflect genuine hawkish signals from a minority of officials, but not enough to shift the majority view (NYT, Jul 8).
- • Market pricing heavily favors a hold at 79%, implying that most participants expect no change based on stable economic fundamentals.
Why it's still open
- • If upcoming inflation data surprises upward, the 21% hike probability could quickly rise, as inflation is the stated focus (Bloomberg, Jul 11).
- • New Chair Warsh may use his first decision to signal hawkish independence, which could push the FOMC toward a 25bps hike despite internal dissent.
- • The low 2% probability of a cut leaves room for a dovish surprise if economic data weakens sharply, though this is unlikely.
What to watch
- • Warsh’s congressional testimony on July 14-15 will be scrutinized for any hawkish or dovish lean; a hawkish tone could raise hike odds (Investopedia, Jul 10).
- • Any inflation or employment data releases before the July 29 decision will directly affect the outlook — higher inflation increases hike odds, lower inflation solidifies hold.
- • The July 29 FOMC decision itself will resolve the market, with any unexpected move causing large adjustments.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
On Jul 29, 2026
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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