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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Economics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Economics prediction markets

Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.

🔭 Compare economics odds across venues →

All Markets & equities 727 Growth & recession 286 Inflation 179 Monetary policy 107 Largest Companies 90 Jobs & labor 62 Gasoline Prices 43 Bitcoin Price Levels 15 Currency Exchange Rates 14 Gold Price Levels 8 Headline 8 Fiscal & trade 6

244 markets · page 4 of 11

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.00%

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$534 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev123456…11Next ›

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Other61¢

9 outcomes

$568K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.75%

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ795 Vol▲ 0pts5y

Polymarket

Open

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$2.6K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026? — In 2026

Despite the Fed's 2025 projection of just one 25 bps cut, the market now sees virtually no chance of a larger cut, as recent broker calls and geopolitical tensions have shifted expectations toward no change or even a hike.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$490K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? — Michael Barr

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$581 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Manifold· Play

Open

What is the risk-free interest rate for markets with ridiculously distant resolution dates?

The market's 97% No reflects a consensus that no credible risk-free rate exists for maturities beyond 30 years, given current economic turmoil and the absence of a liquid ultra-long benchmark.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.50%

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$3.8K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?

The market is pricing a near-zero chance of a July rate cut because the Fed's June minutes revealed deep internal divisions over inflation and rate direction, with no clear consensus for easing, and recent mortgage rate data offers no fresh pressure for a cut.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Will the July 2026 FOMC statement include forward-looking rate guidance? — In July 2026

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$4.2K Vol▼ 1pts3d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ363 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 3.00%

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

$5K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Polymarket

Open

What will be the next Fed rate change?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

$275 Vol▼ 2pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Resolves No at end of 20261¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ69.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.50%

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$15.6K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Fed rate hike in 2026?

The market is pricing a near-coin-flip chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, but the real story is the tension between a hawkish new Fed chair (Warsh) and a fragile economy that may not withstand tighter policy, with geopolitical risks from US-Iran escalation adding a wildcard.

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00%

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$14K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ158 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.75%

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$69.1K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00%

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$6.6K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Despite hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Warsh and a hot jobs report, the market is overwhelmingly confident that the Fed will cut rates below 4% by end-2026, likely betting on an economic slowdown or recession that forces a policy reversal.

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ66.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo