What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Resolves No at end of 2026 at about a 1% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
These markets resolve No on popular market resolution dates, so the percentage of these markets show the opportunity cost of money for markets resolving on those dates. There are existing markets for this already, but they were created while Manifold was giving loans for long term markets, which caused interest rates to be much lower. And there is no incentive to correct them by buying Yes unless you think other traders will need to liquidate their positions to free up capital, so they do not reflect the current risk-free interest rate.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
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