AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
845 markets · page 8 of 36
Yes ≈ 65% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
15 outcomes
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
The market heavily discounts any discovery of matter outside our 3D space by 2031, but recent exomoon and cosmic structure headlines show astronomers are finding unexpected objects that blur the line between 'normal' and 'exotic' matter, keeping a small chance alive.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
The market is betting heavily that AI will produce a top-conference paper by 2028, but the recent headlines reveal a flood of low-quality AI-generated slop in journals, not a single accepted breakthrough at a top ML venue—so the odds may be pricing in a future that hasn't yet materialized.
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 57% chance
Despite Tesla's strong EV sales, the Optimus humanoid robot has zero production count and Musk himself has rejected claims of being secretly ahead, making a 2026 public sale look highly unlikely.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
24 outcomes