By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2030/01/01 at about a 89% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site. Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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