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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2467 Tech Company Valuations 920 Big tech & chips 630 Space 486 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

847 markets · page 6 of 36

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$57.2K Vol▼ 6pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…45678…36Next ›

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$121K Vol8mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ519K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Kalshi

Open

Price to Beat: 0.49

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$178K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — Before 2028

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$206K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$138K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)28¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ6.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1490

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Despite ongoing speculation about SpaceX IPO and Dogecoin catalysts, the DOGE-1 moon mission was rescheduled in June 2026 with no new date, keeping the probability of a launch by year-end very low at 12%.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$872K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Kalshi

Open

Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Oct 1, 2026 — Before Oct 1, 2026

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$16.6K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$578K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 16

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$8.1K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$72K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)57¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ5.9K Vol▲ 0pts18y

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.76 on Jul 31? — Above $3.76

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$775 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑7.5k

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$183K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$9.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑12.5k

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$349K Vol5mo