What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US) at about a 28% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This question is an attempt to gather criteria to resolve this question: https://manifold.markets/rohanvisme/will-the-world-look-shockingly-simi Questions will resolve to to YES if they have occurred by January 1st, 2030. Update 2025-28-01 (PST): - Threshold for VR usage: 100 million hours per week in the US (AI summary of creator comment)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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