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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 54 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2394 Tech Company Valuations 891 Big tech & chips 610 Space 460 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,319 markets · page 54 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

‹ Prev1…52535455Next ›

Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ630 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Apple announce a new AR headset in 2026?”

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ392 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ826 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ479 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will someone have a chip implanted in their head that can access the internet at 16KB/s before Elon Musk dies

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ948 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will SpaceX be involved as one of the first organizations to get a human to walk on Mars?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts—

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The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll)

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ115 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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This market resolves to PROB equals 10x the percentage of the US human population that declare being romantic involved with some AI in 2050.

Yes62¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ265 Vol▲ 0pts—

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By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ51 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will ""The AI Doc" is coming out March 26" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ320 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ68 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will we send another type of animal to Mars before we send a human to Mars?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ980 Vol▲ 0pts—

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By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ323 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 202897¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ41K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Starship land a human on Mars before California HSR transports a paying passenger to Bakersfield?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ275 Vol▲ 0pts18y

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By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Adept AI be valued at $20B or greater by the end of 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ53 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Elon Musk spend a week in outer space?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ441 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ24.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a human walk on Mars before 2045?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts18y

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Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ800 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts—