Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028 at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This is a "market for markets". Artemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly. The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023)(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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