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What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on the ≥90% outcome, driven by three consecutive breakthroughs from DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic since April 2026, but the 93% probability leaves little room for the possibility that the benchmark's difficulty proves insurmountable within the year.
≥90%93¢
8 outcomes
Ɱ117K Vol 0pts5mo