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AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

The market heavily discounts a model reaching 1540 Arena Score by September 2026, likely reflecting a belief that LLM performance gains are plateauing even as China's competitive push intensifies (Fortune, Apr 16).

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$8.3K Vol 2pts2mo

Tech prediction markets

Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026? — Before November

If Elon goes to space within his lifetime, will he go past Low Earth Orbit?

New pandemic in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 6000

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before August 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?

Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Oct 1, 2026 — Before Oct 1, 2026

Will Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? — ↑ 1530

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 16

Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?

Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 31, 2026? — Before Aug 31, 2026

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

Will Grand Theft Auto 8 release before a human steps on Mars?