Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Next Mythos-Class Model released by…? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 46% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 46% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Anthropic holds an extraordinary 98% concentration, yet the provided headlines contain zero mentions of AI model releases or leaderboard shifts, implying the market's extreme odds are based on the absence of challenger news rather than any new advantage.
26 outcomes
Best Chinese AI Company end of July?
The field is a two-horse race between Alibaba and Moonshot, but Alibaba's 24-hour 4-point drop—without a clear headline catalyst—suggests traders are pricing in a risk from Beijing's potential export curbs on top AI models (Reuters, Jul 9), which could limit those models' availability on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard.
25 outcomes
Best AI model on August 1?
The field is exceptionally concentrated: Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds 81% due to a dominant lead in the Arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard that has persisted for weeks, and no headline or recent movement suggests a challenger is closing the gap—the biggest shift is the 24-hour +1 point gain for the leader, reinforcing its momentum without any competitive threat surfacing in the news.
4 outcomes
Which company has the third best AI model end of July?
The field is extremely concentrated (Anthropic 99%) despite 26 candidates, with no recent AI news in the provided headlines to explain any shift — the odds likely reflect prior leaderboard standings rather than new events.
26 outcomes
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?
The field is extremely fractured with no single leader above 17% and 30 candidates all within or near a tie, but the biggest recent shift is the emergence of Google Gemini 3 (Ars Technica, Nov 18 2025) as a serious contender, breaking up what was previously a two-horse race between OpenAI and Anthropic.
30 outcomes
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
The field is extremely fragmented with 32 candidates and the top three summing to 169%, meaning no single company has a dominant lead; the biggest recent shift is the absence of any clear catalyst from the provided headlines, as none of the cited stories (e.g., Cisco's AI rollout, WhatsApp's pricing) directly affect the Agent Arena leaderboard rank that will decide this market.
32 outcomes