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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2387 Tech Company Valuations 892 Big tech & chips 608 Space 459 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

825 markets · page 5 of 35

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.36 on Jul 31? — Above $7.36

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

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By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?

Mu2e's unprecedented sensitivity to muon-to-electron conversion gives it a real shot at discovery, but the long history of null results in lepton flavor violation searches and potential schedule delays keep the odds heavily tilted toward no signal by 2030.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ320 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Yes28¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$311K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$66.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "It Is Reasonable To Research How To Use Model..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ350 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$257K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Oklo

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$44.1K Vol▼ 3pts5d

Polymarket

Open

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

068¢

6 outcomes

$1.2M Vol▲ 4pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2049?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 13

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 1pts12d

Polymarket

Open

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$596 Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

The market heavily doubts that by end of 2026 researchers will have identified a genuinely novel semantic pattern inside an LLM—one that was unknown to AI and cognitive science in 2006—reflecting a belief that current interpretability tools mainly rediscover known concepts rather than uncover truly alien ones.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ519K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026? — Before November

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$47.6K Vol▲ 1pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$116K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 6000

Despite a rise in measles cases that is on track to exceed last year's total, the threshold of 6,000 cases remains extremely unlikely given that even the worst recent year (2019) saw only 1,282 cases, explaining the 85% No odds.

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$160K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Polymarket

Open

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$8.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?

The market strongly favors a Mars walk over a dark matter Nobel, but the complete absence of relevant headlines in the provided data suggests the odds are driven by long-standing technological expectations, not recent events.

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Polymarket

Open

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Yes95¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$147K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1500

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$121K Vol8mo

Kalshi

Open

Price to Beat: 0.49

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5d