AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,608 markets · page 5 of 109
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
The field is highly concentrated on July and August 2026 (78% combined), with the pre-seed funding announcement in June likely shifting confidence toward these near-term months and compressing earlier possibilities.
8 outcomes
Anthropic's Mythos is already deployed in limited form to trusted US organizations and financial infrastructure, but the market sees a low chance of a full public release under that name by year-end, partly due to access restrictions and a rival Microsoft project.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
95 outcomes
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Yes ≈ 58% chance
Despite recent activity around Gemini Flash models, no new Pro model has appeared on the Arena leaderboard since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February, and the 1510 threshold is very high; the recent upward odds movement likely reflects speculation that Google's rapid Flash iterations signal an imminent Pro release, but the base rate of Pro model scores makes a 'Yes' unlikely.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
4 outcomes
29 outcomes
Yes ≈ 90% chance
26 outcomes
Odds have dropped 6 points in the week despite a July 23 launch announcement and a leaked Opus 5 in Cursor, suggesting traders expect the new model to fall short of the 1500 threshold—a bar that prior Opus iterations have not reached.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
The field is wide open with 39 options and the top three barely above 5%, but generating labeled diagrams is at 100% because it is the most concrete and verifiable candidate, while the next tier clusters around 75-88%, reflecting uncertainty about subjective criteria like natural conversations and taxes.
39 outcomes
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance