AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
825 markets · page 4 of 35
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Odds surged 26 points in 24 hours after the FDA convened an advisory committee on peptide reclassification, but the committee's recommendation—not yet public—will determine whether BPC-157 makes the Category 1 list before the September deadline.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
The market is pricing a low 15% chance of Ebola crossing from the massive DRC outbreak into the Republic of the Congo, but the real story is that the DRC outbreak has already killed 930 people and is growing, with health workers facing attacks and an experimental vaccine strategy being considered, making cross-border spillover a tangible risk that the odds may understate.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Despite a surge in Texas and a confirmed case in New Mexico, the odds of a livestock screwworm case outside Texas by August 30 have dropped 9 points in a week, likely reflecting confidence that containment efforts will keep the pest within current zones for now.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 71% chance
OpenAI's rapid model releases and public AGI principles suggest progress, but the market heavily discounts a formal AGI announcement by year-end, likely because recent actions (e.g., the death of the Microsoft agreement) indicate a cautious, incremental approach rather than a definitive breakthrough.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
The market's slight uptick to 55% despite recent launch scrubs and a stock slide suggests traders are betting on an eventual reusability announcement rather than immediate technical success, with the key test flight this week as the near-term catalyst.
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 52% chance
The market is heavily betting against a 2026 confirmation, but the real story is that a formal protocol for disclosure exists (USA Today, Jun 16) and a celebrity endorsement of UFOs (Entertainment Weekly, Jun 10) has not shifted institutional silence, leaving the 1% odds reflecting extreme skepticism rather than any new evidence.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The field is extremely top-heavy, with the top three candidates alone summing to 284%, but the resolution's 2049 horizon and the 'widespread' bar mean that even the 84 candidates above 5% represent plausible long shots, making the race less concentrated than the leaderboard suggests.
90 outcomes
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
6 outcomes
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 45% chance