AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
819 markets · page 3 of 35
The market heavily discounts a U.S. government confirmation of aliens by 2029, but the real story is the persistent low-level betting activity on a near-term confirmation by 2027, suggesting a small but committed group of traders sees a non-zero chance of a sudden, high-impact disclosure before the main deadline.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Despite ongoing testing and partnerships, the market heavily discounts a 2026 human moon landing because NASA's Artemis III mission is not scheduled until at least 2027, and no alternative crewed lander is on track for this year.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
The market sees a 39% chance of exceeding 4,000 measles cases in 2026, but this is not just about raw counts—it reflects uncertainty over whether the current record-breaking pace (already surpassing all of 2025) will continue or slow, with hot spots in seven states driving the surge (Axios, Jul 25).
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
The market shows a 16% chance of official U.S. confirmation of aliens by 2028, a relatively high probability given the lack of any credible official statement in recent headlines; the odds appear driven more by media coverage of prediction markets than by concrete developments.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance
9 outcomes
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance