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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 183 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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4,500 markets · page 183 of 188

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Yes85¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…181182183184185…188Next ›

Open

Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2050?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ691 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ18.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ221 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ967 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2040

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ134 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2099?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ418 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ118 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Despite widespread media speculation about AI mega-cap IPOs in summer 2026, none of the three companies have filed for an IPO or confirmed a $200B+ valuation, and with the August 15 deadline just weeks away, the market heavily favors a No resolution.

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts22d

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Open

Will OpenAI change its name to ClosedAi?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ5.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will NASA/ESA find microbial life on Mars before 2050?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ249 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Chip chief Johny Srouji leaves Apple for another company by 2027?

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI estimate 50% chance Full Automation of Labor after 2080?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ71 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

How does antimatter gravitationally interact with other antimatter.

Attracts85¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ34.4K Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Open

Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts16y

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Open

Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ252 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ375 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ26.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will there be a space elevator by 2050?

The 20% Yes odds reflect skepticism that a space elevator, a concept still confined to sci-fi and unresolved material science hurdles, can be built by 2050 despite ongoing financing discussions and grassroots competitions.

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ967 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ22 Vol▲ 0pts1y