AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,321 markets · page 13 of 56
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
The market has swung heavily against a Yes resolution in the last 24 hours, but the provided headlines offer no direct explanation for the move, suggesting traders may be reacting to Elon's recent posting silence or a specific non-post rather than any external gaming news.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 49% chance
The market overwhelmingly expects GPT-6 in 2026, but recent GPT-5.6 releases and scattered product launches suggest OpenAI is iterating incrementally rather than rushing a flagship, casting doubt on a definitive GPT-6 launch this year.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
The market's low confidence (34%) in a Grok model hitting 50%+ on Humanity's Last Exam reflects the extreme difficulty of this benchmark, where even frontier models currently score below 10%, and no clear recent progress has been visible to shift expectations up.
Yes ≈ 33% chance
Yes ≈ 79% chance
Despite a flurry of speculative articles and celebrity endorsements, the market sees near-zero chance of an official U.S. confirmation of aliens before August 1, 2026, because no credible government or scientific body has made a definitive statement, and the few headlines that exist are from entertainment or analysis sites, not official sources.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Yes ≈ 55% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance