Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 13% right now.
Summary
This market asks whether Elon Musk will visit Mars before August 1, 2099, or his death if earlier. Current odds strongly favor No at 88%, reflecting skepticism about the feasibility and timeline. The outcome depends on technological progress, funding, and Musk's personal lifespan.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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