AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,736 markets · page 113 of 114
Yes ≈ 21% chance
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 27% chance
The field is heavily back-loaded, with 31% assigned to 'some year after 2040' and 10% to AGI causing human extinction before consensus, while near-term years (2028–2032) each sit below 10% — indicating that most bettors expect either a very long wait or a catastrophic interruption rather than a clean breakthrough in the next decade.
21 outcomes
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
The market heavily doubts that a single prompt can produce a high-quality AI-generated video game by 2027, reflecting skepticism that current generative tools can handle the complexity of game design, despite occasional stock jitters from new AI demos.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
The market heavily doubts AI will surpass humans across all mathematical research areas by 2028, largely due to recent high-profile demonstrations where AI models failed rigorous math tests that humans aced, shifting the burden of proof onto AI proponents.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
The market is skeptical that AI will match Romantic poets by 2028, despite rapid progress in language models, because the task demands a depth of human emotion and cultural context that current systems lack.
Yes ≈ 45% chance
The 80% odds reflect a market consensus that an AI smartphone is nearly inevitable by 2027, but the recent headlines are oddly silent on concrete product launches, suggesting the high probability is driven by general tech momentum rather than specific announcements. The real story is whether this is a foregone conclusion or a bubble of hype without a clear flagship device yet.
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Yes ≈ 74% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
8 outcomes
Yes ≈ 59% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Yes ≈ 53% chance