What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: -20 to -10pp at about a 41% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market matches AI's Societal Effects: YouGov Poll from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest. See the other manifold questions here [image]Resolution criteria Formula: (benefits outweigh) - (drawbacks outweigh), where each side = sum of "greatly" + "somewhat" Interpretation: Positive = more believe benefits outweigh drawbacks Negative = more believe drawbacks outweigh benefits Acceptable question wordings: Either the "benefits vs drawbacks" phrasing or the "positive vs negative effect on society" phrasing (see the "More Info" section on the website version of this question) are acceptable for resolution. If YouGov uses a different wording that the resolver judges comparable, that may also be used. If no comparable poll is conducted in the last 6 months of 2026, the question will be resolved as ambiguous. Eli Lifland is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. Buckets are left-inclusive: e.g., -10 to 0pp includes -10pp but not 0pp.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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