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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 108 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2377 Tech Company Valuations 888 Big tech & chips 605 Space 454 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,608 markets · page 108 of 109

Manifold· Play

Open

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

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Open

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Some year after 2040.31¢

21 outcomes

Ɱ35.1K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ90 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

The market heavily doubts AI will surpass humans across all mathematical research areas by 2028, largely due to recent high-profile demonstrations where AI models failed rigorous math tests that humans aced, shifting the burden of proof onto AI proponents.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ71K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

The market is deadlocked at 50/50 because there is no clear catalyst or recent breakthrough to swing opinion; the core disagreement is whether AI can replicate the emotional depth and historical context of Romantic poetry, a subjective and high bar.

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ65.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ490 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ28.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ806 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tensordyne’s Logarithmic AI Compute Matter in any way before 2028?

Despite Tensordyne's Napier chip claiming a 13x performance leap over NVIDIA by converting matrix math to logs, the market assigns only 34% probability that this logarithmic AI compute will 'matter' before 2028, reflecting deep skepticism about real-world adoption and competitive durability within the two-year window.

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI seriously undermine nuclear deterrence before 2030?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ111 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ98 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Despite a handful of political proposals and nationalization precedents in other sectors, the market sees negligible chance of US AI research being nationalized by 2027, reflecting the lack of concrete legislative progress and strong ideological opposition.

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ27.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?

The market is pricing a 42% chance that an AI solves a Millennium Problem by 2026, reflecting a tug-of-war between recent high-profile AI-assisted breakthroughs and the historical precedent that even genius human mathematicians have taken decades or rejected the prize.

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?

-20 to -10pp41¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ19.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

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Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?

This market is not about a specific product launch but about whether a free, slow-speaking, repeat-capable Ukrainian AI voice assistant will exist by mid-2026, with the high odds reflecting general AI progress rather than a concrete announcement.

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ21 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will OpenAI be acquired by 2040?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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AI reduces US tech workforce by 20% before 2029?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ260 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

OpenAI's own model reportedly won gold at the 2025 IMO, but the market still sees only a 53% chance it will be the first to succeed at the specific Grand Challenge or XTS AI-MO competition, suggesting skepticism about whether that win meets the competition's stricter criteria or whether a rival will beat them to it.

Yes53¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ73 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ465 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

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Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ758 Vol▲ 0pts1y