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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 105 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2477 Tech Company Valuations 925 Big tech & chips 632 Space 489 Science 291 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,708 markets · page 105 of 113

Manifold· Play

Open

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ865 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…103104105106107…113Next ›

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ168 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI Warning Signs: Will a tool that can easily generate generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ535 Vol▲ 0pts—

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AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Interaction Company of California (creator of Poke AI assistant) acquired before 2028?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ46 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027?

Yes74¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ129 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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When given the choice, will humans voluntarily give up a large fraction of our cosmic endowment to AI beings?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ55 Vol▲ 0pts10mo

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Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ479 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ408 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Yes88¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ7.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will "The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ514 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ51 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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If humanity gets wiped out by 2033, will it be because of AI?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

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AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

Yes54¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ3.1K Vol▲ 0pts14y

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The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll)

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ115 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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This market resolves to PROB equals 10x the percentage of the US human population that declare being romantic involved with some AI in 2050.

Yes62¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ265 Vol▲ 0pts—