Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

✨ The field is heavily skewed toward launch within 4 months but with near-zero chance in the next two weeks, reflecting the grounding after the May 28 booster failure (USA Today) — the key unknown is how long the investigation takes.

✨ The race is effectively over: all four winners have been publicly announced on July 23, 2026, collapsing the field to the four named recipients and making any further movement purely a matter of market resolution mechanics.

✨ Multiple news outlets report that AI models have achieved a perfect score at the 2026 IMO, making the 97% odds a near-certainty that the event has already occurred, with the market awaiting final formal confirmation.

Yes ≈ 97% chance

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.

✨ Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ The field is top-heavy with SpaceX and Anthropic, but the recent reemergence of SPACs (Freshfields, Jul 24) provides a potential alternative route for lower-odds candidates like Kraken, Canva, and Stripe, making the race more dynamic than the leaderboard suggests.