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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3937 US elections 2828 Foreign politics 447 Political Leader Tenure 362 Future US Presidents 231 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 77 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,188 markets · page 9 of 258

Polymarket

Open

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$22.3K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…7891011…258Next ›

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Abdul El-Sayed53¢

4 outcomes

$256K Vol▼ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

The race to succeed Nancy Pelosi is a two-person contest between Scott Wiener (69%) and Connie Chan (30%), with no recent headlines directly affecting the race. The field is highly concentrated, and the biggest recent shift is the solidification of Wiener's lead, though no headline explains this move.

Scott Wiener69¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ1.4M Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?

Yes98¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$12.1K Vol▲ 9pts2d

Kalshi

Open

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 5218¢

10 outcomes

$1.8M Vol▼ 1pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ327K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$21.7K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?

The market is extremely confident Democrats will at least match their 2024 and 2022 totals (95%+ for 215+ and 213+), but the odds of a majority (218+) are only 85%, and the odds of a wave like 2018 (235+) are just 18%, suggesting a narrow map with limited gains beyond the current baseline.

194+ (2016 result)96¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ13.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Cori Bush59¢

18 outcomes

$97.7K Vol▲ 1pts8d

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029? — Before January 20, 2029

The market assigns a 73% probability that Trump completes his term, reflecting a lack of credible early-exit scenarios despite some recent administrative turbulence.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

$513K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ3.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202791¢

30 outcomes

$2.8M Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Abdul El-Sayed, 3-6%15¢

13 outcomes

$167K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ161K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$300K Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Troy Jackson99¢

21 outcomes

$4.2M Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ57.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — 50+

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$62.3K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Prediction Market / Predictive Market

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$10.8K Vol▲ 2pts1d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ12.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$45.2K Vol▲ 4pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? — Before 2029

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$158K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Despite persistent media buzz and prediction-market chatter, the US government has made no official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, and with only two months until the deadline, the market is pricing in near-certain failure.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$3.4M Vol▼ 0pts2mo