Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Scott Wiener at about a 69% chance — likely.
The race to succeed Nancy Pelosi is a two-person contest between Scott Wiener (69%) and Connie Chan (30%), with no recent headlines directly affecting the race. The field is highly concentrated, and the biggest recent shift is the solidification of Wiener's lead, though no headline explains this move.
What's driving it
- • Wiener's fundraising advantage aligns with the trend of money's rising influence in primaries (Politico, Jun 1).
- • Chan's progressive support mirrors the success of Mamdani-backed candidates in New York (BBC, Jun 24).
- • No recent headlines have directly impacted this race, so the odds reflect long-standing factors.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Scott Wiener leads due to his statewide name recognition and strong fundraising, a pattern seen in other primaries (Politico, Jun 1).
- • Connie Chan has a loyal base among progressives and Asian Americans, similar to the coalition that won in New York (BBC, Jun 24).
- • Both candidates are well-known in San Francisco, and the district's Democratic lean ensures the nominee will be a Democrat.
Why it's still open
- • The field is effectively closed, with only two candidates above 5%, but a late entry or scandal could disrupt it.
- • If Wiener or Chan falter, candidates like London Breed or Christine Pelosi could emerge, though they currently have negligible odds.
- • The lack of recent headlines means the race is not being actively shaped, leaving it open to sudden changes.
What to watch
- • An announcement by Nancy Pelosi about her retirement plans (no date given) would reshape the race, likely benefiting the candidate she endorses.
- • A special election, if triggered, would favor the candidate with the strongest ground game.
- • No upcoming events are specified in the provided headlines, but any major endorsement or debate could shift momentum.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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