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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3937 US elections 2828 Foreign politics 447 Political Leader Tenure 362 Future US Presidents 231 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 77 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

4,962 markets · page 9 of 207

Smarkets

Open

State Senate Elections — Texas Senate Election Winner

Republican56¢

2 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

‹ Prev1…7891011…207Next ›

Farage 60%+37¢

6 outcomes

$69.5K Vol▲ 1pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump run in the 2028 United States presidential election?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ12.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Winner of Clacton’s by-election

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

▲ 0pts17d

Kalshi

Open

New York Governor winner?

Kathy Hochul92¢

2 outcomes

$432K Vol▼ 1pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Quebec General Election Winner

PQ71¢

3 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Futuur

Open

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo75¢

4 outcomes

▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Alaska Governor-Senate combo

Democrats sweep37¢

4 outcomes

$29.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

German State Elections — Berlin State Election Winner

SPD4¢

6 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Cori Bush59¢

18 outcomes

$97.7K Vol▲ 1pts8d

Manifold· Play

Open

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Georgia?

The field is effectively a two-party contest, but the Libertarian Party's removal from the ballot (AJC.com, Jul 11) eliminates a potential spoiler and runoff trigger, making a Democratic win more straightforward and likely explaining the 90% odds.

Democratic90¢

2 outcomes

Ɱ111K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

2028 Presidential matchup

Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio11¢

16 outcomes

$218K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Smarkets

Open

2026 Swedish General Election - Next Swedish Prime Minister

Magdalena Andersson81¢

2 outcomes

▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Tom Begich36¢

40 outcomes

$1.1M Vol▼ 1pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

The field is highly concentrated on a handful of safe Democratic seats, but the recent progressive primary upset in Colorado (PBS, Jul 1) and the broader left-wing primary wins (The Hill, Jul 4) signal that internal party dynamics—not just generic ballot trends—are reshaping which candidates are seen as likely winners, with some incumbents losing renomination and thus making their seats less certain for Democrats.

Washington 897¢

68 outcomes

Ɱ40.4K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will James Fishback receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? — At least 20%

James Fishback's bid for 20% in the Florida Republican primary hinges on a court ruling on his eligibility this Monday; even if he clears that hurdle, Byron Donalds' overwhelming lead makes the threshold a steep climb.

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$371K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner

Jeremy Moss92¢

20 outcomes

$46.2K Vol▼ 0pts8d

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

The race to succeed Nancy Pelosi is a two-person contest between Scott Wiener (69%) and Connie Chan (30%), with no recent headlines directly affecting the race. The field is highly concentrated, and the biggest recent shift is the solidification of Wiener's lead, though no headline explains this move.

Scott Wiener69¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ1.4M Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

South Dakota Republican Governor runoff margin of victory?

Larry Rhoden, ≥12%92¢

10 outcomes

$17.1K Vol▼ 1pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Mike Lindell52¢

36 outcomes

$463K Vol▼ 4pts15d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ112 Vol▲ 9pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee report more than $35M in cash on hand at the end of Q3? — Above $35M

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Debbie Wasserman Schultz64¢

18 outcomes

$25.5K Vol▼ 8pts22d