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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 8 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3929 US elections 2819 Foreign politics 442 Political Leader Tenure 360 Future US Presidents 230 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

728 markets · page 8 of 31

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Restore Britain win the most seats at the next UK general election?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ18.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

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Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Anthony Albanese37¢

7 outcomes

$222 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Michel-Edouard Leclerc

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$7.7K Vol▼ 5pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?

The field is unusually concentrated on two top candidates (Bardella and Philippe) who together command 56%, yet it remains volatile because the third slot (Other at 21%) is a catch-all that could absorb a late entrant or a candidate disqualification; the biggest recent shift is Bardella's surge to 31%, driven by the impending court decision on Marine Le Pen's eligibility (Politico, Jul 6).

Marine Le Pen27¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ18.5K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Ilie Bolojan be out as Prime Minister of Romania before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$3K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$14.3K Vol▲ 1pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

If Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?

The market's strong No (87%) suggests that even if Trump wins, institutional checks and the high bar of emigration make a trans woman's flight to the UK unlikely, despite his anti-trans record and potential second-term policies.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Ilie Bolojan be out as Prime Minister of Romania before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$857 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$312K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Ilie Bolojan be out as Prime Minister of Romania before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Labour wins the next UK election will there be a Scottish independence referendum announced during that parliament?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ137 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Polymarket

Open

Pará Governor Election Winner

Candidate A50¢

18 outcomes

$21.8K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election: Most Seats Won

PL73¢

15 outcomes

$530 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be elected mayor of Toronto in 2026?

Olivia Chow72¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ9.8K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

Thorsten Frei98¢

34 outcomes

$26.1K Vol▲ 1pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva81¢

7 outcomes

$48.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the party with the most seats supply the prime minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ675 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

Mark Brown86¢

30 outcomes

$7.8K Vol▲ 1pts17d

Kalshi

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Renan Santos60¢

13 outcomes

$12.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?

No by-election held in these seats before the next UK General Election75¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ11.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner

The field is effectively a one-party race, with the AfD at 98% and all other parties below 3%, but the real contest is whether the AfD can secure an outright majority or will need a coalition partner, as recent headlines highlight growing alarm over a far-right state government and its implications for energy policy and security.

AfD98¢

34 outcomes

$869K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Britain Restoring Underlying Values ("BRUV") win a seat in the next U.K. general election? — Before 2035

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$24.1K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Statue of Liberty be Returned to France by the End of Trump's 2nd Term?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

NM-01 House Election Winner

Democratic Party94¢

8 outcomes

$31.4K Vol▲ 0pts3mo