Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
4,992 markets · page 7 of 208
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Despite Governor Whitmer's late endorsement of moderate Haley Stevens (July 25), progressive Abdul El-Sayed maintains a commanding 69% lead, indicating the endorsement has not significantly reshaped primary dynamics and that El-Sayed's base remains firmly behind him.
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The field remains unusually fragmented with 'Other' leading at 29%, reflecting deep uncertainty about both party nominations; the biggest recent shift is the Democratic National Committee's decision to keep South Carolina as the first primary state (The Guardian, Jul 24), which could reshape the Democratic field's dynamics.
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The field is dominated by two scenarios — split control (Democratic House, Republican Senate) at 45% and a Democratic sweep at 41% — but recent polls signal a tightening Senate map that is narrowing the gap between them (Delawareonline.com, Jul 22).
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