Which Party will win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Democrats at about a 56% chance — more likely than not.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The prediction market for the 2026 Maine Senate election shows Democrats as the leading contender with a 58% probability, while Republicans have a 42% chance, indicating a competitive race. The "Other" outcome is priced at 0%, reflecting negligible perceived likelihood for third-party or independent candidates. These odds suggest a close contest where either major party could prevail.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.