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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3867 US elections 2746 Foreign politics 422 Political Leader Tenure 349 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

261 markets · page 5 of 11

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Jeff Jackson become President of the United States?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

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‹ Prev1…34567…11Next ›

Open

Will Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ12K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections?

The 20% probability for AOC becoming the Democratic nominee by 2032 reflects a party deeply split between its progressive and moderate wings, where a coordinated progressive push could either elevate her or backfire and solidify centrist resistance.

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will a US President (or Presidential Task Force) confirm an extraterrestrial or non-human intelligence by 2030?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Donald Trump be the first US President to live in exile?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ807 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Lex Fridman interview the next US President by 2029?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ605 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

US President states on video that COVID likely escaped from WIV, any time through 2026

Despite the persistent lab-leak debate, the odds reflect that a sitting president is unlikely to make an explicit video statement blaming WIV, given the lack of new definitive evidence and the political risk of reopening a divisive issue.

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ92 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ518 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

Who will be President of the United States on January 21, 2037?

Other57¢

79 outcomes

Ɱ14.6K Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will there be another Impeachment of a US President before James Cameron's Avatar 4 comes out?

The market sees a second Trump impeachment or a Biden impeachment as plausible before 2029, driven by partisan cycles and recent calls for removal, but the high odds may overstate the probability given the rarity of actual impeachments and the tight timeline.

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Sitting US president visits Cuban Government Leaders in Cuba before 2034

Recent CIA director visit to Cuba (May 2026) shows rare high-level contact, but the simultaneous indictment of Raul Castro and Trump's coercive strategy suggest any presidential visit remains a long shot before 2034.

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ329 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Open

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

The market's low 23% Yes probability suggests traders believe that even with a Republican president, China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, likely due to a combination of US deterrence, regional stability signals, and China's preference for gradual pressure.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?

Cuba's sweeping free-market reforms and UN pressure create a narrow opening, but the Cuban president's rejection of US aid and insistence on a full energy blockade lift show the two sides remain far apart, keeping odds low.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Open

Will a son of Donald Trump become President of the USA?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ431 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Marco Rubio run for President?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ374 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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A sitting US President becomes a parent while in office by mid 2036

The recent birth of a child to Vice President JD Vance has dramatically shifted the conversation around presidential parenthood, but the market remains skeptical because the sitting president is not the one becoming a parent and the timeframe extends to 2036, making the event highly contingent on future presidencies.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will Donald Trump be the first US President to live in exile? [clarified, by 2030 Halloween]

Despite Trump's ongoing political engagement and lack of any exile precedent, the market assigns a 16% chance he becomes the first US president to live in exile by 2030, reflecting residual tail risk from legal or political upheaval.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ105 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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If Elon Musk runs for US president before 2033, will they win?

Musk's 13% chance reflects not his ambition but the drag from foreign endorsements and legal troubles, though his wealth keeps a narrow path open.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ930 Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will a US president explicitly apologize for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by 2040?

The nearly even odds mask a stark reality: no US president has ever apologized for the atomic bombings, and the fierce backlash against Obama's mere visit (critics called him a 'lunatic') shows the political cost, while Trump's 2026 Pearl Harbor joke suggests the current administration is hostile to such a gesture. The long horizon to 2040 leaves room for generational change, but the historical precedent and domestic polarization make a full apology a long shot.

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ397 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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JD Vance: Second Contract Kill?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ482 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the 48th President of the United States be a member of the Democratic party?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ804 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will an active US President or Vice President be booed off a stage by the end of 2029?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ111 Vol▲ 0pts3y