Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,081 markets · page 2 of 254
The field is a two-way contest between Republicans and Democrats, with Republicans holding a 55% edge, but the gap has narrowed from earlier in the year as Democrats have gained ground in generic ballot polling and special election results, with the biggest recent shift being a 5-point move toward Democrats since late June, driven by improved polling in key swing states (The News Journal, Jun 30).
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 85% chance
The field is effectively a two-person race between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, with Mallory McMorrow a distant third, but the race has tightened significantly after Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's late endorsement of Stevens, which injected establishment momentum and a major organizational ally into Stevens's campaign (NBC News, Jul 24).
3 outcomes
The field is effectively a two-party contest with no third-party threat, but the single biggest recent shift is the Democratic Party's emergency replacement of scandal-plagued Graham Platner with Troy Jackson in the must-win Maine Senate race, a move that could stabilize their odds after a debacle (The Washington Post, Jul 25).
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The field is extremely concentrated around Darline Graham at 71%, a dramatic shift from a wide-open race just days ago after she entered following her brother's death, per Newsweek (Jul 25).
11 outcomes
The market sees a second-term Trump impeachment as more likely than not, driven by serious new threats that have drawn bipartisan concern, even as no formal articles have been filed and partisan dynamics remain unclear.
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
The field is anchored on a year-end 2026 deadline, but the recent standoff over inspections (NPR, Jun 24) has left the earlier dates at low odds, and the market implies that a deal by late 2026 is the most likely but far from certain.
3 outcomes
The market is pricing a 0% chance of Trump leaving office by July 31, reflecting a consensus that no credible mechanism — impeachment, resignation, or removal — is active or likely within the six-day window, despite ongoing political turbulence.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The field has consolidated after the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Trump's approval tying its lowest term level, with the 35% and 30% candidates combined at 57% and odds tightening; the top three sum to 44%, but the long tail (e.g., 25% at 6%) remains non-trivial.
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Despite unanimous convictions of five coup-plotters in December 2025, the market is heavily skewed toward zero rank losses (64%), suggesting that the legal and political path to actually stripping military ranks remains blocked, likely by Lula's veto and military resistance.
4 outcomes
The field has narrowed to a two-person contest between El-Sayed and Stevens, with Warren's endorsement (The Hill, Jul 20) giving El-Sayed a decisive lead and consolidating the progressive vote.
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Despite a narrow 52%-49% split, the Ohio Senate race is effectively a toss-up: the Republican edge reflects the state's recent rightward drift, but the Democrat's near-parity signals that national midterm headwinds or candidate quality could easily flip the outcome. The biggest recent shift is the lack of a clear polling movement—headlines focus on other states or general maps, leaving the race's volatility underappreciated.
2 outcomes
The Republican path to a Senate majority hinges on holding Louisiana and flipping Michigan, but internal GOP doubts about nominee quality in Louisiana and a strong Democratic recruit in Maine are tightening the race.
Yes ≈ 55% chance
The field has collapsed to a two-person race between Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican incumbent Susan Collins, with Jackson's decisive delegate win (96%) and the withdrawal of other Democratic candidates (NBC News, Jul 19) consolidating the Democratic side and driving the Democrat's odds to 67%.
2 outcomes
The field is moderately concentrated, with three candidates above 35% and a combined front-runner share of 148% (multiple seats), but the biggest recent shift is the June 30 analysis that Lula’s narrow alliance may hurt Senate allies, potentially weakening left-wing candidates like Paulo Pimenta and Manuela D'Ávila.
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 39% chance