Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 38% chance — less likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets collectively imply about a 38% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, with very close agreement across venues.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 38% right now.
The Clarity Act's odds show a modest uptick after a House subcommittee advanced it, but the market remains skeptical due to unresolved disputes over presidential crypto ownership rules and limited legislative time before the end of 2026.
What's driving it
- • House Subcommittee advanced the bill on July 25, providing a positive catalyst for the 24h +5pt move (Legis1, Jul 25).
- • Ongoing debate over provisions to prevent the President from selling crypto coins, as highlighted by The New York Times on July 22, continues to dampen bipartisan support.
- • Critics from Forbes (Jul 23) and The American Prospect (Jul 24) warn that changes may still allow personal profit, reinforcing skepticism.
The case for YES
- • The bill has cleared a key committee hurdle, giving it formal legislative momentum.
- • Both parties have expressed interest in crypto market structure regulation, providing a potential compromise path.
- • The 2025 introduction suggests sponsors have been working on this for over a year, indicating sustained effort.
The case for NO
- • The specific requirement to prevent presidential profiteering remains deeply divisive, with no clear compromise yet (NYT, Jul 22).
- • The American Prospect (Jul 24) notes a lack of clarity in the bill, which could stall support from moderates.
- • With only five months left in 2026, the legislative calendar is crowded, and the bill still needs full House and Senate approval.
What to watch
- • Potential House floor vote in the coming weeks; a positive outcome would boost Yes odds.
- • Senate Banking Committee hearings or markup; progress would increase Yes probability.
- • Lack of action by September 2026 would likely push odds toward No as the end-of-year deadline approaches.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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