Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
159 markets · page 2 of 7
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 83% chance
With only five days until the deadline, the market is pricing in zero chance of Putin leaving office, despite earlier speculation about war-weariness and regime instability.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Despite continued speculation about Putin's political future, the market heavily discounts a forced removal and subsequent house arrest/exile at 17%, as recent headlines show Putin still firmly in control and no credible internal threats have emerged.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
The market heavily favors Putin remaining president through 2026, but the real story is that the odds are being driven by a perceived diplomatic off-ramp from the Ukraine war, which could either solidify his domestic position or, if talks fail, expose him to renewed instability.
Yes ≈ 91% chance
15 outcomes
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
30 outcomes
Yes ≈ 49% chance
8 outcomes
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance