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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 15 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3903 US elections 2791 Foreign politics 432 Political Leader Tenure 356 Future US Presidents 228 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

424 markets · page 15 of 18

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a trans person be president of the USA by 2030?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ6.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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‹ Prev1…131415161718Next ›

Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

Other73¢

15 outcomes

Ɱ12K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will Ro Khanna be Vice President of the United States before he turns 78?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ352 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts9mo

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Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2036?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will Nikolai Patrushev or Dmitry Patrushev succeed Vladimir Putin as president of Russia?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will there be another non-white President of the United States before 2060?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ276 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ50.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Lukashenko be president of Belarus by the end of 2027?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will AOC be elected President in 2036?

The market sees AOC as a near-impossible long shot for 2036, driven by her lack of national executive experience and poor positioning for the nearer 2028 race, rather than any specific 2036 scenario.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ932 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ9.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Kamala Harris be the first woman president of the USA before the end of 2028?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ28.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Sam Altman become president of the United States?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ401 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Bryan Johnson run for President of the USA in the 21st century?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ275 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Alex Jones ever be elected President?

Alex Jones is a far-right conspiracy theorist with no viable path to the presidency, but the 2% Yes odds reflect a non-zero tail risk of a catastrophic political collapse that could elevate an outsider—though the headlines show Jones is currently feuding with Trump and his Infowars platform has shut down.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Rafał Trzaskowski ever become the President of Poland?

Trzaskowski lost the 2025 presidential election to conservative Karol Nawrocki, making a future victory unlikely but not impossible; he remains a prominent opposition figure who could run again in 2030.

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2028?

Ivanka Trump's 2028 presidential bid is a near-impossibility at 2% because she has repeatedly signaled she does not want to run, faces ongoing legal and reputational risks from family business entanglements, and lacks any political organization or declared campaign.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?

Other50¢

16 outcomes

Ɱ17.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2044?

The market prices Barron Trump's 2044 election chances at near-zero because the recent headlines paint him as a private family figure, not a political aspirant—no campaign activity, no policy statements, and no public role beyond occasional appearances with his father.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ712 Vol▲ 0pts18y

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Will Mike Pence ever be elected President?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ534 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Putin lose his position as President of Russia before the end of his term, May 6, 2030?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ194 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y