Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,229 markets · page 13 of 260
The market strongly favors a Democratic House flip at 83%, but the provided headlines show only routine primary and polling coverage rather than any sudden catalyst—suggesting the odds reflect a sustained baseline view of a favorable political environment (midterm headwinds against the incumbent party) rather than a recent surprise.
Yes ≈ 84% chance
The market sees a Trump visit to Iran before 2027 as virtually impossible, given active military hostilities, no diplomatic relations, and no travel plans—despite a recent halt in US strikes and a planned Netanyahu meeting that focus on Israel's role, not direct US-Iran engagement.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 48% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
5 outcomes
A false alarm in late June—when NPR briefly reported Alito's retirement and then retracted—cemented the market's near-certain view that he will not step down before September, leaving the 2% Yes odds as a residual tail risk rather than a reflection of any real signal.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
11 outcomes
The market heavily favors Trump staying in office through 2028, but recent headlines reveal a mix of security concerns and political friction that could escalate into a crisis, though no direct removal mechanism is currently triggered.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
The market heavily discounts a Trump 'bull case' in 2026 because it requires a rare conjunction of four conditions—high approval, retained Congress, rapid GDP growth, and low unemployment—each individually challenging and collectively improbable.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The field is highly concentrated in two scenarios—Republican President/Republican Senate/Democratic House (43%) and Republican President/Democratic Senate/Democratic House (42%)—with a combined 85% probability, leaving only a 14% chance of a Republican trifecta and negligible odds for any Democratic presidency outcome, reflecting a polarized electorate where the presidency and Senate lean Republican but the House is a toss-up.
8 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The market prices Democrats retaining both chambers at 40%, which is high relative to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, but the Senate map looks promising while the House math remains an uphill climb.
Yes ≈ 38% chance
With only six days left until the market deadline and no indication from Donald Trump, SBF's pardon is effectively dead despite his application, as bipartisan political resistance and exhausted legal appeals have created an insurmountable barrier.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
The market heavily discounts a third Trump term despite his repeated jokes about 2028, because the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit is a hard constitutional barrier that no serious legal or political movement has yet challenged.
Yes ≈ 20% chance
The CLARITY Act, the primary crypto market structure bill, is losing momentum as the August recess deadline approaches and President Trump's financial disclosure and new demands erode support, making the 38% Yes odds increasingly vulnerable.
Yes ≈ 36% chance