Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues — prices range 0%–14%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply a near-zero chance that Trump will pardon SBF by July 31, though the play-money venue Manifold shows a slightly higher 14% chance, likely due to its use of play-money rather than real-money stakes.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
With only six days left until the market deadline and no indication from Donald Trump, SBF's pardon is effectively dead despite his application, as bipartisan political resistance and exhausted legal appeals have created an insurmountable barrier.
📊 Base rate: Presidential pardons for high-profile financial fraud convictions after final appeals are extremely rare; historically, fewer than 1% of such applications succeed, and none have been granted in the face of unanimous Senate opposition.
What's driving it
- • The Senate's unanimous 100-0 resolution opposing a pardon (Tech Times, Jul 16) signals that even Trump's own party will not support this, making a pardon politically toxic days before the deadline.
- • Courts rejected Bankman-Fried's final appeals (Tech Times, Jul 16), exhausting legal avenues and removing any incentive for Trump to intervene as a 'last resort'.
- • Congressional pushback, including public opposition from key Republicans (Bloomberg, Jun 17), has hardened since SBF applied for a pardon (Bloomberg, Jun 8), with no subsequent positive signal from the White House.
- • The CryptoSlate market analysis (Jul 20) and Yahoo speculation (Jul 3) about possible Trump pardons for others like Diddy underscore that no credible source expects SBF to be included.
The case for YES
- • Trump has repeatedly shown willingness to use pardons controversially (e.g., commuting sentences of political allies), and SBF's application (Bloomberg, Jun 8) formally put the request on his desk.
- • A last-minute pardon would fit Trump's pattern of surprising moves, and the 'Diddy' speculation (Yahoo, Jul 3) suggests Trump is considering high-profile clemency in this period.
- • The market's 0% odds create an asymmetric opportunity: if Trump issues a pardon before July 31, the Yes result would be a massive surprise, but no credible reporting supports this.
The case for NO
- • Unanimous Senate opposition (Tech Times, Jul 16) makes a pardon politically untenable, as it would alienate even Trump's allies and invite immediate backlash in an election year.
- • Courts have rejected final appeals (Tech Times, Jul 16), removing any legal urgency or humanitarian rationale for a pardon; SBF is now serving his sentence with no new evidence.
- • The market's deadline is July 31, 2026—just six days away—and no public statement, executive order, or leak has emerged since SBF's application, making a pardon logistically improbable.
What to watch
- • July 31 market deadline: As the date passes without a pardon, the 'No' outcome will be resolved immediately; no further catalysts are needed.
- • Any last-minute public statement from Trump or the White House before July 31 would shift odds, but given the silence, any such statement would likely be negative (e.g., denying a pardon), reinforcing No.
- • A surprise executive order or pardon announcement before July 31 would spike Yes, but no credible news sources suggest this is imminent.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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