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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 12 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

432 markets · page 12 of 18

Manifold· Play

Open

If Trump is elected in 2024, will he be impeached again?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ7.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

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Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?

The 4% probability of Trump's impeachment in 2026 hinges almost entirely on whether Democrats retake the House, as Republican control precludes any formal proceedings—making the real story the midterm election odds and Democratic leadership's stated reluctance to pursue impeachment.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ64.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become vice president of the United States before she turns 70?

Yes23¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ809 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Claudia Sheinbaum remain president of Mexico through EoY 2026?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ9.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ270 Vol▲ 0pts10mo

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Will Pete Buttigieg run for president of the United States in 2028?

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Nasry Asfura elected president of Honduras?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ35 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Marjorie Taylor Greene ever be president of a new confederacy?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ30.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will any sitting SCOTUS justice be impeached and convicted this decade?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ304 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026?

The market assigns a near-zero probability to Kristi Noem being impeached by the House in 2026 because she was fired from her DHS post in March 2026, making her a private citizen no longer subject to impeachment by the current Congress.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ285K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Trump get impeached by the House and Senate before the end of his 2nd term?

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ604 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Conditional on being elected president, will Ron DeSantis be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ111 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Pam Bondi impeachment articles pass house?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ199 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Mark Zuckerberg ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

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President of USA has orgasm on live TV before 2035

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ16.6K Vol▲ 0pts8y

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If Donald Trump is impeached again in his second term, will it stick?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ611 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Gavin Newsom be the next Democrat to become President of the United States?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ291 Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 1, 2028?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ8.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Jeff Bezos ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will Xi Jinping remain the President of China by the end of 2030?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y