Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The 4% probability of Trump's impeachment in 2026 hinges almost entirely on whether Democrats retake the House, as Republican control precludes any formal proceedings—making the real story the midterm election odds and Democratic leadership's stated reluctance to pursue impeachment.
📊 Base rate: Since the founding, only two U.S. presidents (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton) have been impeached by the House, and none have been convicted by the Senate, giving an extremely low historical base rate for any given year.
What's driving it
- • Democratic leaders have publicly downplayed impeachment focus; Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats 'aren't focused on Trump impeachment at this moment' (CNBC, Jun 2), reducing near-term odds.
- • A Newsweek report quoted Wilbur Ross warning that impeachment is 'likely if Democrats win midterms' (Newsweek, Jun 29), tying the market directly to the November 2026 elections.
- • A June 23 Polymarket prediction cited by Washington Examiner gave a 69% chance of Trump being impeached before end of second term, yet the here-and-now 2026 market remains low at 4%—suggesting traders see the window as very narrow this calendar year.
The case for YES
- • If Democrats flip the House in November 2026, party leaders like Hakeem Jeffries have not ruled out impeachment, stating it hasn't been 'ruled out' (HuffPost, Jun 14)—a blue wave could create political will.
- • Trump's explosive exchange with Jamie Raskin was flagged as handing Democrats a 'midterm weapon' (The New Republic, Jun 15), potentially galvanizing anti-Trump voters and providing a narrative for charges.
The case for NO
- • Democrats need to win the House first, and current midterm polls show a competitive race with no clear Democratic landslide (The Times, Jul 6), making a 2026 impeachment improbable.
- • Republican House control guarantees no impeachment proceedings, leaving only a narrow window if Democrats win and then impeach in the brief lame-duck period after November—an extremely tight timeline.
- • Jeffries emphasized Democrats are not focused on impeachment 'at this moment' (CNBC, Jun 2), indicating party leadership is prioritizing other issues and views impeachment as a political liability.
What to watch
- • November 3, 2026 — Midterm election results: if Democrats win the House, odds for Yes would likely spike to 50%+; if Republicans retain control, odds would drop to near 0%.
- • Any new high-profile scandal or Trump indictment before November could shift public opinion and Democratic leadership's stance, increasing Yes probability.
- • October 2026 — Pre-election polling showing a strong Democratic lead in generic ballot or swing districts could raise Yes odds as impeachment becomes a plausible post-election action.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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