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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 10 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

743 markets · page 10 of 31

Polymarket

Open

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$202K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…89101112…31Next ›

If the Gulf of Mexico is renamed to the Gulf of America, will it be because…

An executive order is issued and upheld requiring all federal agencies to use the new name?100¢

17 outcomes

Ɱ5.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Government of the UK report that Keir Starmer is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$6 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas94¢

25 outcomes

$242K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Yes64¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will Government of the UK report that Liz Kendall is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$630 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner

Other50¢

19 outcomes

$485 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ706 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

EU dissolves before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$178K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Government of the UK report that Peter Kyle is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$339 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Canada ever go in effect?

The market is pricing a 61% chance that Trump's proposed 50% tariff on Canada takes effect, but the real story is that the administration has already imposed a 50% tariff on Canada as part of a broader wave of new duties, making the question less about whether such a tariff will happen and more about whether this specific proposal—distinct from what has already been enacted—will be implemented.

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ255 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$2.9K Vol▼ 1pts11mo

Kalshi

Open

Patrick Vallance

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$32 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva 5-10%34¢

11 outcomes

$296K Vol▼ 1pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will Government of the UK report that Rachel Reeves is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$7.2K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

On what dates will Rachel Reeves still be Chancellor of the Exchequer?

The market is pricing near-certainty that Reeves remains Chancellor through June 2026, then a steep cliff to single-digit odds for later dates — the sudden drop reflects recent media speculation about her departure (Politico, Jul 15) despite no concrete event, making the field after mid-2026 wide open.

2025-03-31 / 31st March 2025100¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ24.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Government of the UK report that Steve Reed is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$446 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Michelle Bolsonaro

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$33.2K Vol▼ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$8.2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ374 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$4.1K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will X become law in Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$9 Vol▲ 0pts5mo