On what dates will Rachel Reeves still be Chancellor of the Exchequer?

What's driving it

• • A Politico headline from Jul 15 notes that 'the City already misses' Reeves, hinting at expectations of her departure or a loss of confidence (Politico, Jul 15).
• • A NYT article from Jun 17 highlights the 'political challenges of fiscal stability' she faces, implying that economic headwinds could threaten her position (NYT, Jun 17).
• • No clear catalyst has moved the 100% odds for dates through June 2026, but the sharp drop after that suggests traders are pricing in a trigger event — possibly the upcoming Autumn Budget or a party leadership challenge — that could end her tenure.

What to watch

• • The UK Autumn Budget statement (expected October/November 2026) — if Reeves delivers a widely-criticised plan or a fiscal blowout, odds for her remaining past 2026 could collapse; a calm budget would raise them slightly.
• • The next Bank of England interest-rate decision (August 2026) — a rate rise that hurts growth or housing would increase pressure on her, while a cut would buy her breathing room.
• • Any formal announcement of a Labour leadership challenge or a vote of no confidence — even speculation of such would immediately move the later-date odds sharply lower.