Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
12,159 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 5 of 417
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The field is extremely concentrated on a hold, but the 97% probability is not a reflection of certainty—it is a reaction to the BOJ's explicit dovish signaling in late July, which crushed any remaining hike expectations that had been building since June.
5 outcomes
Despite surging oil prices and Middle East tensions fueling rate-hike bets, the market heavily favors a hold because the Fed's own preferred inflation gauge is being overhauled just as it meets, adding a layer of data uncertainty that makes a hike less likely this month.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
The field is moderately concentrated around the 82-87% bucket, but the recent five-year high report (Valor International, Jul 1) likely solidified that range as the modal outcome, while the 77-82% bucket retains a significant minority view.
5 outcomes
The market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to hold rates steady at all three meetings from April to July 2026, with the April and June decisions already confirming that pattern, but the unusually high dissent in April (CNBC, Apr 29) suggests internal pressure for a cut that could break the pause if economic data weakens.
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Gold's recent plunge below $4,000 and the lowest level of 2026 has shattered confidence in a clear direction, leaving the field extremely fragmented with no candidate exceeding 5% odds.
2 outcomes
17 outcomes
The field is highly concentrated on the 1.6%-2.0% bracket at 63%, but the recent shift from a Q1 acceleration narrative (Valor International, May 28) to a cooling 2025 backdrop (Reuters, Mar 3) has narrowed the range, suppressing both the high-growth and low-growth tails.
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Gas prices have already crossed the $4.04 threshold nationally as of July 24, making a Yes resolution nearly certain unless a dramatic price crash occurs in the final week.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on a single candidate—December 31, 2026—at 70%, with the only other viable candidate far behind at 7%, making this a near-certainty market despite the lack of any official IPO filing or confirmation from Anthropic. The biggest recent shift is the sustained dominance of the year-end 2026 date, driven by a flurry of comparative IPO coverage with OpenAI and speculation about the Bay Area housing impact, rather than any concrete corporate action from Anthropic itself.
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market is moderately concentrated on a 5.5-5.7% range, but the most recent official data showed unemployment at 6.1% in March (Agência de Notícias - IBGE, Apr 30), meaning the front-runner implies a substantial decline, making the race sensitive to any new data that confirms or contradicts that trend.
3 outcomes
The field is extremely diffuse with no candidate above 5%, reflecting a market that sees silver's July 2026 price as highly unpredictable; the biggest recent shift is a sharp rally from a fresh YTD low near $54 to $58.20, driven by a pause in the oil price rally (FXStreet, Jul 21).
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Yes ≈ 49% chance
The market is nearly split between the two lowest inflation buckets, with the June US report showing encouraging signs beyond gas (constructconnect.com, Jul 23) reinforcing disinflation, but Japan's higher oil-driven inflation (CNBC, Jul 23) and UK's sequential slowdown (Haver Analytics, Jul 22) create crosscurrents that keep the 0.2-0.4% outcome competitive.
3 outcomes